As the government gets closer and closer to running into the debt ceiling, Congress seems to be playing at politics instead of governing the country. It looks like though Congress is more fixated on the 2012 elections than the Aug. 2 date on which the government will run out of money. I spoke with the Director of the UNH Survey Center and associate professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire, Andrew Smith to get an expert's opinion on the way things are going in the debt ceiling negotiations.
What's really happening in the debt ceiling negotiations?
I think both sides are playing a game of chicken and I think both sides recognize that there will be some sort of resolution to this. They are appealing to their bases this year, but their eyes are on the 2012 election. I think a lot of this is for the 2012 election. Both sides, I think right now, have to appeal to their bases, because those are the only people that are paying attention to this right now, the political activist community. The general public may be paying more attention than they would have in the past, but I think they are more concerned with a lot of other issues.
Who seems to be getting most of the blame for the debt ceiling standoff?
The national numbers show that over the last several weeks, Republicans seem to be getting the benefit from it. If you look at things like some of the generic measures such as the generic House ballot question, which I think is a good indication of how people are, you know, how people say they are going to vote at the ballot box has moved somewhat toward the Republican side.
The right track/ wrong direction question is something that is something that is down. The people who say the country is headed in the wrong direction is at its highest certainly since President Obama has been elected. That's up to 65%. That's usually an indication of that the President and the President's party is being blamed.
Those are the kind of overall trends that I would look at. The other one that I would look at is the President's job approval rating. It's negative now and it's been increasing over the last couple of weeks pretty sharply. The national average is about 50 percent disapprove, about 45 percent approve.
Currently, the Republicans seem to be taking an absolutely no compromise position. As long as they also seem to be winning on the issue politically, there is no reason to change that --
I don't know if I quite buy the premise. I think that both sides are posturing on the issue. Without being there and being a fly on the wall, I think there's probably a lot more room for compromise than we probably know. I think a lot of this is for public consumption, and not really what's going on inside those negotiating rooms.
I'm always skeptical about what gets in the newspapers because that's being said by those who were in the room and want to make sure that their point of view gets greater representation or is made to seem to be the truth. I'm always dubious.
In the last few days specifically, the unity of the Republican Party seems to be weakening a little bit, with Cantor, McConnell and others making statements that are seemingly at odds with one another, and there's even a little bit of name-calling thrown in. Does this signal an even bigger rift coming up for the 2012 primary season?
I don't think it will have much impact in the primary season, but there's always going to be those differences between the Senate and members of the House of Representatives, because they have very different constituencies which they represent. The Senators and the Senate itself, does have a reputation and a history of looking more at the national interest and less at the parochial interest, except when it comes to bringing home the goodies whereas, people in the House are more concerned about their local constituencies, because they have to run for reelection every two years. They're more focused on short-term political forces. I think that is the kind of classic tension between the House and the Senate and I think we're seeing that displayed in this latest debt ceiling battle.
You don't see it as any really weakening, but just the natural interplay between the two houses?
If it continues and it sharpens, it could cause a problem for Republicans in general, because one of the things you have to count on as a member of a political party, is a strong sense of unity within your party, because you want to have the anger and emotion concentrated against the opposing party, not within your own party.
If it gets ramped up and you see more division, more specifically, between the tea party wing of the party versus more of the establishment of the Republican Party it could be potentially problematic. If the tea party wing expresses being fed up with the party as a whole and you get a situation where Republicans face a situation like you get with Ross Perot where a number of Republicans said 'To hell with the Republicans, I'm going to vote for Ross Perot as a protest vote' then, that could cause a problem for Republicans, but I don't think we're at that point yet. I think it's too soon to say that much about it.
Some of the GOP presidential candidates currently in congress have made very plain statements on the issue. Michele Bachmann, for example, has said the other day that she would not vote for any debt limit increase unless it included a repeal of the Affordable Health Care Act. Ron Paul won't vote for it in any circumstance. These statements would seem to be very difficult to go back on, and still run for president. With such prominent people in the party holding out against any compromise, or holding out for things that are not going to happen, can there really be a compromise? Is there enough support for compromise from the GOP side?
Well, the two people you mention, Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann are not really leaders within their party caucuses. I think that's a critical thing to remember. What you're talking about now are the leaders within the legislative caucus of the Republican Party. Those are the people that have, in the past, shown much greater willingness to compromise. With that said, I think there is a hardening of positions on the Republican side. I think there is a hardening of positions of the Democratic side.
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