Upon Further Reflection?#E32012 | Digital World Research

After the close of the 2012 E3 show, I spent some time reflecting on the show, the messages, the attempts, the games, points made, points missed, and, points to be saved for later.

It is an interesting time for the traditional video game console business ? and while I call it ?interesting,? much of the popular press and financials analysts are busy using terms such as ?boring? (http://bit.ly/MxsJCd), ?disillusionment? (http://bit.ly/MxsNlm), and ?uninteresting? (http://exm.nr/MxsTcz).

My thoughts are multiple and simple: What did people really expect at this E3 show? I fully admit ? I personally had reservations about whether or not five days in Los Angeles was too much time, but I was wrong. It?s a great time to be looking at the industry, and here is why:

• Games look GREAT right now on consoles. Then again, they SHOULD look great right now. It?s something like year 27 of the current console cycle, and developers have had plenty of time to figure out how to tweak out the Xbox 360 and the PS3. I exaggerate about what year we?re in, but the underlying point is real ? this is the longest console cycle with three viable consoles that the industry has ever seen.
  As a result, games now look GREAT. Halo 4. Assassins Creed. Far Cry (anything from Ubisoft). Call of Duty. Last of Us. The list continues, and should make for a great Holiday 2012 to be a video game consumer.
  The corollary point is a touch more complicated ? while games look great now, the itch to call for ?what-have-you-done-for-me-lately? from consumers for new hardware is unmistakable, but the resistance from both Microsoft and Sony to call the current cycle ?dead? is strong, as they both wish to milk another year out of their current consoles. As soon as one of them announce a new console, the current console hardware sales typically die as consumers stop buying to save up for what?s next.
  Nintendo, whose Wii had the least power of the three current consoles, but outsold the PS3 and Xbox 360, has moved first to a new console by announcing the Wii U in greater detail. This should not come as a surprise to any industry veteran, or console gamer.
• Wow, everyone seems to expect the Wii U to just suck. This was a clear reaction to the Wii U news from the Sunday video release ahead of the show and the Nintendo press conference on Tuesday.
  I count myself in a group of about three people who thought Nintendo is in good shape. And I certainly believe this today, too.
  I challenge anyone to complain about a Super Mario game, or a NintendoLand game, and then note how those aren?t ?core? games.
  Rewind to the launch of the Wii and, specifically, Wii Sports. The complaints included the graphics, the lack of real feet or hands, and how Nintendo wouldn?t be able to compete against the PS3 or the Xbox 360.
  Hindsight is 20:20, and Nintendo came out on top. Why? Because the game play mattered over the graphical fidelity, and Wii Sports was not only a fun game, but a cross-generational game that included all gamers.
  I bring that example up because games for the Wii U such as LEGO City, NintendoLand, SuperMario Bros., and Zombi were simply fun ? and fun sells.
• So where were the social, mobile, tablet games at E3? In the lobby at the JW Marriot Hotel. The push for new business models and non-consoles games were really the focus for the Game Developers? Conference (GDC) in San Francisco in February, but not E3 2012. The focus in Los Angeles last week was squarely on big console games. The casual gaming folks were there, but meeting in small meetings off the show floor. This will have to change in the future, and this was likely the last E3 without non-console games having a presence.
• Let?s be clear ? the elephant in the room is new business models such as Free-to-Play (F2P) and new platforms such as tablets and mobile. The world for non-console gaming is in Early Days (yes, I just recently published a book by the same name and you can buy it here http://amzn.to/N12qe2), and this doesn?t preclude the video game console companies from offering a bunch of F2P games moving forward.
  However, the advancements made in figuring out the business model for F2P are being made on tablets, in browsers and, in mobile ? NOT on consoles.
  From my perspective, Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft are thinking about models such as F2P instead of a $60 packaged goods business, and some experimentation is coming. However, it feels like the companies are moving only one toe at a time into the water, while extending its current packaged goods (with some digital sales) model.
• I admit I love the Halo franchise, but Halo 4 multiplayer just rocks. The multiplayer options for Halo 4 are different than most things out there today, especially the Call of Duty franchise.
  I was fortunate to have some hands-on time for Halo 4 multiplayer, and while I am not a game reviewer by trade, it was a blast. And, when you layer in the upcoming video episodes and connected multiplayer games, it feels like Microsoft (and 343 Studios) is making a bunch of good moves tying the franchise to videos. It is reminiscent to me of the prequel video stories from Ubisoft for the Assassins Creed franchise, and making the video weekly episodes for Halo 4 will go a long ways toward proving (or disproving) the extensions of a video game brand into videos.
• The role of social communications tools at conferences was once again present and vibrant at #E32012. This conference used to be a press conference, followed by articles and analysis in the following 24 hour news cycle. Today? It?s tweeting (meaning real time) and, including hash tags such as #E3 and #E32012.
  Just as the cycle for the newspaper industry has changed dramatically in the past decade, coverage of conferences is changing, and E3 is no different. The ability of journalists to live blog or live tweet an event means that coverage can mean top-of-mind, knee-jerk reaction and analysis. From my perspective, while that sounds negative, it is not meant to be. It is a statement of the current technology, and the role of influencers can be much greater today than in the non-Twitter world. This means that companies involved in this space need to be more aware of the changing role of journalists and others in the Tweet-sphere and blog-sphere.

About P.J. McNealy

P.J. McNealy is an accomplished analyst, consultant, presenter and writer specializing in the digital media and consumer electronics industries. His main focus is simple: where are the business models going, and what are the technologies and consumer behaviors driving those changes? Learn more at pjmcnealy.com and follow me @pjmcnealy

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